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Nico’s model for the World Cup

Elo + weighted SRS + Maher Poisson attack/defense, retrained on every international result with time-decay and a World Cup boost. Per-team expected goals are tilted by last-10 Elo-adjusted form, then turned into exact-score probabilities via a Dixon–Coles low-score correction and optionally blended with de-vigged sportsbook lines.

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400 Monte Carlo runs over every remaining game and the entire knockout draw.

Click Simulate full tournament to project where the chips fall.

#	Team	Group	Strength	Elo	FIFA	Last 10	PPG

Odds API key

Add an Odds API key to fold live bookmaker odds into your match prediction analysis. Grab a free one at the-odds-api.com.